Kiyoshi Martinez - nerdlusus blog the geek wants out

Clifford Stoll: Full of ideas, but some were wrong

Today, via @Brad_King on Twitter I saw a link to this article published in Newsweek from 1995: The Internet? Blah! by a certain Clifford Stoll.

Now, you have to remember, this was around 13 years ago when the Internet and how it would evolve, how popular it would become, how societies attitudes would shift, etc., were still still up for debate. Stoll took a very interesting and unfortunate stance:

Visionaries see a future of telecommuting workers, interactive libraries and multimedia classrooms. They speak of electronic town meetings and virtual communities. Commerce and business will shift from offices and malls to networks and modems. And the freedom of digital networks will make government more democratic.

Baloney. Do our computer pundits lack all common sense? The truth in no online database will replace your daily newspaper, no CD-ROM can take the place of a competent teacher and no computer network will change the way government works.

Oops! As we now know, this premise turned out to be wrong. He probably wasn’t the only one. Luckily, he didn’t have to pay dearly for his predictions beyond his pride.

Sadly, others did have to pay for this way of thinking. Yes, that’s right: newspapers. The ultimate nay-saying industry that’s found itself in pain from self-inflicted wounds. I could go on about this, but I’d much rather focus on Stoll for a moment.

While you might be inclined to laugh at Stoll and write him off, I’d say, “not so fast!” He’s actually a really entertaining and brilliant man.

For instance, he sells Klein bottles at his online store that he makes himself. He’s written a few books that I’ll have to check out, too. Plus, he’s a really funny speaker that I’d like to see in person. Check him out his talk at TED 2006:

Technorati Tags: clifford+stoll, klein+bottle, physics, mathematics, science, internet, future, TED+2006

Yoshi,
Was he actually wrong? Of course, the daily newspaper is taking a historic nosedive. But the workings of government on a decision-making level are no more Democratic because of the Internet. Moveon.org e-mails you about a Senate vote you read about on dailykos, and your e-mail to your senator will still be disregarded and filed under “moveon.org” people, just like the antiquated postcards AARP had the elderly send 25 years ago.

Try giving this thing another read. He’s wrong on some points, but I think you might find it is prophetic of the oligarchic filter mechanism that now regulates and segments the Internet into experts and communities instead of a “Nirvana” hive mind.

Sara: If you’re going to take issue with the government not being changed by the Internet, I’ll have to disagree. Legislative action is reported in real time on Thomas.gov. The same goes for the Illinois Legislature. Many government agencies post public documents directly online. The Federal government is now starting to follow suit with the so-called “Google for Government” that passed not too long ago.

I don’t see how you can say that the government is more or less democratic, because the way we vote and representation hasn’t changed (other than remapping of districts, etc.) significantly. What we have now is greater transparency and easier access to public information than was available previously when we were operating in an era without the Internet.

Also, to say that the direct lobbying of public officials hasn’t been effective in terms of e-mails to representatives I think is faulty. Right or wrong, money can be considered a form of speech that’s directly involved in the election of public officials. With the Internet, donation and fundraising has been transformed and made more efficient.

Also, several legislators at various levels use the Internet to communicate more directly with their constituents through social networks, blogging and e-mail.

On the whole, Stoll bet against the Internet in a big way and I think he lost.